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The BSA’s annual report for 2008 shows that membership numbers are continuing to decline as the ratios of Scouts to leaders remain steady. The table below reports membership changes from the past four years and analyzes the sizes of units and leadership ratios.
I am counting on more mathematically talented folks to check my work and the assumptions I draw from the numbers.
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | Change | % | |
| YOUTH | ||||||
| Tiger Cubs | 243,609 | 247,017 | 241,851 | 231,471 | -12,138 | -5% |
| Cub Scouts | 834,562 | 819,882 | 800,729 | 798,060 | -36,502 | -4% |
| Webelos Scouts |
667,153 | 634,962 | 645,406 | 636,104 | -31,049 | -5% |
| Total Cub Scouts | 1,745,324 | 1,701,861 | 1,687,986 | 1,665,635 | -79,689 | -5% |
| Boy Scouts | 879,789 | 860,675 | 851,572 | 844,939 | -34,850 | -4% |
| Varsity Scouts |
63,637 | 62,161 | 62,016 | 60,940 | -2,697 | -4% |
| Total Scout/Varsity | 943,426 | 922,836 | 913,588 | 905,879 | -37,547 | -4% |
| Venturers | 249,948 | 244,266 | 254,259 | 261,122 | 11,174 | 4% |
| Total Scouts |
2,938,698 | 2,868,963 | 2,855,833 | 2,832,636 | -106,062 | -4% |
| UNITS | ||||||
| Cub Scout Packs |
51,469 | 51,077 | 50,780 | 50,213 | -1,256 | -2% |
| Venturing | 20,117 | 19,920 | 19,920 | 19,998 | -119 | -1% |
| Boy Scout Troops |
42,811 | 42,269 | 41,947 | 41,628 | -1,183 | -3% |
| Total Traditional Units |
122,582 | 121,530 | 121,034 | 120,262 | -2,320 | -2% |
| ADULT LEADERSHIP | ||||||
| Cub Scout Leaders |
493,165 | 480,457 | 480,316 | 470,400 | -22,765 | -5% |
| Boy Scout Leaders |
520,591 | 519,557 | 524,962 | 528,534 | 7,943 | 2% |
| Varsity Leaders | 23,380 | 22,799 | 23,356 | 23,392 | 12 | 0% |
| Venturing Leaders |
63,821 | 63,500 | 65,645 | 65,621 | 1,800 | 3% |
| Council Leaders |
45,269 | 43,638 | 43,829 | 44,406 | -863 | -2% |
| Total Leaders |
1,146,226 | 1,129,951 | 1,138,108 | 1,132,353 | -13,873 | -1% |
| Unit Ratios | ||||||
| Scouts per Troop | 20.6 | 20.4 | 20.3 | 20.3 | ||
| Leaders per Troop |
12.2 | 12.3 | 12.5 | 12.7 | ||
| Scouts per Leader |
1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | ||
| Cub Scouts per Pack |
33.9 | 33.3 | 33.2 | 33.2 | ||
| Leader per Pack |
9.6 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 9.4 | ||
| Cubs per Leader |
3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | ||
| Venturers per Crew |
12.4 | 12.3 | 12.8 | 13.1 | ||
| Leaders per Crew |
3.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.3 | ||
| Venturers Per Leader |
3.9 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 4.0 | ||
Leadership ratios and unit sizes have remained steady as membership has declined.
I am curious that the ratio of Scouts to leaders is basically half of that as Cubs per leader. Although the decrease in Cubs and Scouts from 2005-2008 is about the same the ten year trend (below) represents that we have lost twice as many Cubs as Scouts. I wonder if the leadership ratios are a factor?
There also seems to be a retention problem in Cub Scouts as they approach Webelos. From what I have seen there is a fair amount of attrition from Tiger to Wolf and from Bear to Webelos. I can’t find any numbers for the Webelos to Scout transition. I can extrapolate that since there are twice as many Cub Scouts as Boy Scouts we are only transitioning half of the boys who join Cubs into Scout Troops.
Here is a look at the ten year trend showing a net loss of 16% but a more shocking loss of nearly a quarter of Cub Scouts while Boy Scouts shows the lowest losses.
| 1998 | 2008 | Change | % | |
| Tiger Cubs | 304,346 | 231,471 | -72,875 | -24% |
| Cub Scouts | 1,006,497 | 798,060 | -208,437 | -21% |
| Webelos Scouts |
861,144 | 636,104 | -225,040 | -26% |
| Total Cub Scouts |
2,171,987 | 1,665,635 | -506,352 | -23% |
| Boy Scouts | 945,583 | 844,939 | -100,644 | -11% |
| Varsity Scouts |
77,859 | 60,940 | -16,919 | -22% |
| Total Boy Scouts |
1,023,442 | 905,879 | -117,563 | -11% |
| Venturers | 188,010 | 261,122 | 73,112 | 39% |
| Total Scouts | 3,383,439 | 2,832,636 | -550,803 | -16% |
I know that our Troop has had to extend a great deal of effort to recruit Webelos and other boys to become members. The ‘good old days’ where we could expect eight or ten new members from local Packs are over.
The ratios of leadership indicate that Troops are top-heavy with adult
leadership. Cub and Venture leaders have about twice the number of
youth members to care for. It would seem to me that Troops should detail a number of their leaders to work directly with Packs to support their program and help to increase retention and transition.
I agree one day a cub leader next a parent of a Eagle.
However as to the number of Cub Leaders verses the troop leaders I helped build a new peck where we had almost 30 Kids. Trying to get parents to join and help make the pack something to be proud of was difficult many parents think of it as 1 1/2 hours of free babysitting. This doesn’t work. When the den I led from wolf to webelows Crossed over we had 7 kids move to the Troop my son and I went to. 4 just did not cross. 4 stayed in the troop till they were 18, 3 earned Eagle
After the Cubmaster and I crossed no one wanted to run the pack and suddenly it was gone We had a very active Pack we did family campouts every year, promoted heavly day and resident camps to the boys and families. We used the District activities (marbles, bowling etc…) as an oppertunity for the youth and always had a good turn out to the events. I have been a Scoutmaster Since 2003 and the proud parent of a Eagle Scout. Our troop currently has 3 leaders who have no kids but have been involved in scouts for 30 years or more. does this skew the number of adult leaders you bet but its knowlage that I have relied on many many times.
The program still works if the parents support it and the troops don’t decide its us or them when it comes to sports (which seem to be our biggest challange)instead they should think oppertunity for sports or personal fitness merit badges.
Unfortunately to many parents do not realize the positive influence they can be on the youth and thier son when they participate and have fun doing it.
I can’t, nor do I want to, defend or explain a program I cannot observe personally. I can say how things ought to work.
Scouts advance and earn awards because of what they do as Scouts. Imagine if there were no recognitions at all – what would naturally interest your sons?
Problem is that many folks (especially in Cubs) treat the advancement program like an arcade or a carnival. Play so many games, earn tickets, get a prize. Boys pick up on this very quickly and soon they become rather Pavlovian. ‘Will this earn us a badge?’ ‘How many of these do I have to do to earn a loop?’
A better approach is to concentrate on the experience. Not everything earns a badge, let’s do something because it is worth doing. Scouting’s founder, Baden Powell, said that awards in Scouting were like getting a suntan- they come to you naturally because of the fun, interesting, engaging and challenging things you are doing in the course of being a Scout.
Once you know this the whole expereince of Scouting changes. At the cub and Webelos level it is reasonably easy to steer things the right way.
Now that YOU know this you can move from being a ‘marginal’ parent to being a Den Leader for your son. It is a very intense experience and great fun when you get a handle on the situation. One day you are a den leader for your nine-year old, you turn around and he’s an Eagle Scout and you have been able to watch it all form the best seat in the house.
Interesting, As a marginal Webelos parent, I struggle with the rigidity of the system, and lack of organization in our pack. One son has it all laid out as to what he needs to do to achieve rank the next is lurching from event to event with minimal time to organize etc.
Its fast becoming a non fun thing to do. Our 8 yr just dropped out and the 9 yr is hanging in only because I sat and read fro 2 hours working out what he is eligible for that he done during the year that would help him earn some loops.
The Camps are soooo draconian due to safety requirements that we left. Giving a child a belt loop for shooting 3 arrows or firing 10 pellets, is asinine. Where is the ‘learning’ experience. It felt like I was at an amusement park be jammed from one event to the next in 105 degree heat in uniforms…..
I have not heard my son say its fun to do ‘scouts’in a year. He only wants to go to pack mtgs, because dens are boring.
So any way – I love my kids, I love doing activities out of the scout books as a family but this accumulation mentality of awards and ‘achievements’ is lame and so very American.
I think we will just opt out and do things by ourselves and really learn about a topic rather than this scout approach.
Walter, I’m afraid it is even more dismal than the numbers you are showing. This is because I believe a more important measurement is the percentage of scouts to the US boy population. While the scouts real numbers were declining, I’m sure the boy population was increasing. If you were to look at the percentage of boys that are scouts, you would see an even more dramatic decline. And I also believe this steady decline stretches back to the 60s or 70s at least.
It is important to keep the parent(s) of the scout believing in the program in order to keep or recruit the scout. I have been a cub and scout leader for 7 years now. My observation has been that if you loose the parent, you loose the scout. I have always been, I think, one of the leaders that these marginal parents are willing to confide in. They express to me their frustration with the rigid unyielding nature of so many scout leaders. There are a lot of scout leaders who are not socially skilled (to say the least) and you might be surprised to find out how many scouts families are driven off by these types. I realize addressing that is difficult, but corporate America has taken a pretty good stab at it with sensitivity training. Just having group discussions at round tables or training sessions, about being more open minded to the ways others may think and to ideas that may not be exactly scout traditional ways of thinking.
So many times I’ve tried to get my units interested in changes or new ways to try and open up interest in scouting to more boys, with no success. The typical scout leader that I’ve dealt with over the years believes in the old ways and doesn’t see a need for change, while his unit dwindles away out from under him.
Until Scouting adopts a philosphy of constant evolution to adapt to our constantly changing demography, it will continue to wither away. This doesn’t mean change the core principles of leadership and citizenship, but to find new more currently relevant ways to manifest them.
However, my scout unit is doing well and increasing membership, primarily due to Mic-O-Say. Our scouts have really been motivated by what Mic-O-Say does with the parallel advancement system from Brave to Warrior, to Fire Builder, to Tom-Tom beater, to Runner, to Keeper of the Sacred Bundle. The Native American costume creation, dance, and chant requirements for advancement in this system augment scout advancement requirements well. Scout rank advancement is required to advance in this system as well (eg, you must be an Eagle to advance to Runner). This system is far superior to OA because it has more adult involvement. A Mic-O-Say ceremony looks so authentically Native American, it makes you think Hollywood must have had a hand. OA ceremonies are a real let down in comparison.
Because of our strong Mic-O-Say involvement we do most of the Cub bridging ceremonies (in our district (we need to start a waiting list because we’re getting overloaded). This leads to lots of recruits for our troop, which currently has 85 registered scouts.
I know BSA does not favor Mic-O-Say because it is not seen as as much boy led. I would encourage all scout leaders to take a look at Mic-O-Say. If you can swing it, make a visit one Friday evening this summer camp season to Camp Geiger near St. Joseph, MO, and watch their 4th Fire Ceremony. Mic-O-Say taps out more adult leaders also than OA, which relates back to my point about keeping the parents believing in the program.
Whew! But Learning for Life really is down 24.9% from 2007 to 2008. 14% for Explorers and 30-40% for school-based programs and special needs.
http://www.scouting.org/Media/AnnualReports/2008/12lflsummary.aspx
I may have to stick this in a spreadsheet and make some graphs.
I have to change a patch before I get my shirt back on, I passed the torch to a new Scoutmaster last night.
Hey there Walter, keep your shirt on! The percent change above is 2005-2008. The change between 2007-2008 in traditional Scouting was -.8%. The drop in Tiger Cubs was -4.3% in 08. That may catch up with us in years to come.
The whole thing is pretty dismal. It looks like there will need to be some big changes if we are to stop the regression.
5% loss in a single year is huge and scary. If that rate keeps up, it is 25% over five years and 40% over twelve. (0.95**5 = 0.77, etc.)
Starting as a Tiger Cub, you have five years of Cubs and twelve until you are 18, so a Tiger Cub starting in 2008 could see the BSA decline by almost half during their time in Scouting.
Did you look at the Learning for Life figures? 25% loss in one year. What that heck happened there?
I must admit when I was a Webelos leader I found it astonishing that Troops didn’t contact us for recruitment. I ended up making sure my boys visited several troops and they all crossed over into a troop that fit them, but I think Troop leaders should be more cognizant of the wonderful opportunity for growth and make an effort to reach out to Webelos dens.
As for Troops being top-heavy with leaders, amen to that. The troop my son is in has lots and lots of leaders. And all but two are Woodbadge trained (and those two are Learners). I think it has something to do with the idea that families that like the outdoors education that Scouting offers are probably going to have both mom and dad like it and both of them are in the troop leadership. And unless their kids outnumber them, we’re going to have many leaders to kids.
Having adult leader contact between pack and troop would be helpful, but not as important as having more Scout contact.
I’m a leader in a successful Cub Scout pack, where our retention from rank to rank has been very good but our retention after Scouts move on to a troop has been disappointing. Having Boy Scout involvement in a Cub Scout program is the key factor in my experience: an enthusiastic Den Chief who leads activities not only makes my job easier, it also encourages the Cub Scouts to set their sights on a troop. A great Den Chief could bring a whole lot of Webelos up to his troop; my den (new Bears) has a lot of interest in Boy Scouts because our Den Chief made a real effort to engage them.